Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
